Part I: Development History of the TMSR-LF1 Thorium-Fueled Molten Salt Reactor

In September 2018, China broke ground on the second fully operational liquid-fueled molten salt reactor ever built. ORNL built the first one way back in the early 1960s. The second one, which China just built, is the very first molten salt reactor ever built, by anyone, which includes has the ability to breed Thorium into fissile Uranium-233. It’s not quite “Thorium-fueled” yet, but it’s one step closer than has ever been achieved before. It’s called the TMSR-LF1.

Part II: Why the TS-MSBR can make Nuclear cheaper than coal & gas, while LWRs can't

Part I gave the history of how China’s TMSR-LF1 came to be. But who cares? So what that China built a tiny little research reactor out in the middle of the Gobi desert, based on a 65-year old design for an American proof-of-concept reactor that ORNL only bothered to build one of before abandoning the design! Why should anyone care that China has one now, or that it’s more advanced than the one ORNL built back in the early 1960s? As this post will explain, the answer is that (in my ever-so-humble opinion) this design has more potential to make nuclear energy cost less than fossil fuel energy than any other reactor design ever conceived.

This post will argue my case, and I welcome critical feedback from those who disagree in the comments below. If China establishes a firm lead over the rest of the world in commercializing this reactor technology, I predict that will have profound macroeconomic and geopolitical consequences. Part III will argue that case under separate cover.

Part III: China's role in the World Order and how TMSR-LF1 fits into a grand strategy

Part I covered how the TMSR-LF1 came to be, and Part II explained why the TS-MSBR reactor design has the potential to make nuclear energy cost less than energy from fossil fuels. Now Part III will explain why the TS-MSBR reactor design is likely to be central to China’s long-term energy strategy, and how it will give China an immense economic (and eventually, military) advantage over the West.

As the linked ‘theverge.com’ article states, Bill Gates' Wyoming TerraPower Venture, “Tech companies are flocking to nuclear energy to power their data centers.” TerraPower and Copenhagen Atomic (featured on this blog) are two of the ‘new tech’ nuclear reactor companies that will be competing to power the AI data centers. Here’s how ChatGPT describes the two technologies:

The Natrium reactor, developed by TerraPower, and Copenhagen Atomics' molten salt reactor (MSR) represent distinct approaches to advanced nuclear energy, each with unique designs and objectives.

• Natrium Reactor: This reactor is a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) that utilizes metallic high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel. It features an intermediate molten salt loop for heat transfer, allowing for thermal energy storage. The reactor operates at a steady-state power output of approximately 340 MWe, with the capability to peak at 500 MWe. This design enables flexible energy production, accommodating fluctuations in renewable energy sources.

• Copenhagen Atomics Reactor: In contrast, Copenhagen Atomics is developing a thorium-based molten salt reactor. Their design employs a heavy water moderator and a fluoride-based molten salt fuel mixture, aiming to utilize thorium and actinides from spent nuclear fuel. The reactor is designed to fit within a 40-foot shipping container, facilitating mass production and deployment. Each unit is intended to produce 100 MW of thermal energy, with the potential to combine multiple units for higher output.

You can visit the TerraPower site at https://www.terrapower.com/about/, and

Copenhagen Atomics at https://www.copenhagenatomics.com/about/

“Copenhagen Atomics, and Switzerland’s Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), have signed a large-scale experimental collaboration agreement for a thorium molten salt critical experiment,” per www.aeimagazine.com.

Here is an interesting YouTube video on Copenhagen Atomics:

Immediate significant US debt reduction within the administration’s current priorities appears to be a stretch. President Trump’s strategy is to grow the economy to produce a larger revenue base. We should recognize that growth in the economy does not happen overnight. The “out-years” will measure the success of the strategy. The primary thrust is to build a more favorable investment environment, e.g., lower corporate taxes, reduced regulation, and lower energy prices to encourage economic investment. These actions will generate more jobs that will drive a larger pie of individual income taxes, which is the primary source of federal tax revenue. Recognize that, in the short-term, we will see increased deficit spending that will add to the national debt. This, most likely, is the reason the President has pushed for removing the debt ceiling. It is interesting, after SIGNIFICANT deficit spending by the previous administration, that the Democrat party is now talking about a battle over the debt ceiling. What is clear, old policies are not working. It would be good to see collaboration on new strategies within the Congress.

Here is how ChatGPT sees the issues -

President Trump's proposal to reduce federal spending by $1 trillion faces significant challenges, casting doubt on its realism. The administration, with Elon Musk leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has initiated aggressive measures, including dismantling agencies like the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. However, these cuts represent only a small fraction of the federal budget.

A substantial portion of federal spending is allocated to mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare. President Trump has pledged to protect these programs from cuts, limiting the scope for significant reductions. Discretionary spending, which includes defense and non-defense expenditures, would require deep cuts to achieve the proposed $1 trillion reduction. Analyses suggest that balancing the budget within a decade would necessitate cutting all spending by approximately one-quarter. If defense, veterans' benefits, Social Security, and Medicare are excluded from cuts, the required reductions in other areas would be even more severe, potentially up to 85%.

Furthermore, the administration's concurrent pursuit of tax cuts complicates deficit reduction efforts. Proposals to extend and create new tax cuts could add between $5 to $11 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, significantly increasing interest costs and potentially leading to a debt spiral.

Political opposition also poses a significant hurdle. Democratic leaders have expressed strong resistance to cuts in essential programs, employing legislative and legal strategies to block such measures. This resistance suggests that achieving the proposed spending reductions would require substantial political negotiation and compromise.

In summary, while the goal of reducing federal spending by $1 trillion addresses concerns about the national debt, the practicality of achieving such a reduction is questionable. The necessity to protect major entitlement programs, the potential exacerbation of the deficit through tax cuts, and significant political opposition collectively undermine the feasibility of this proposal.

Challenges Surrounding Trump's $1 Trillion Spending Reduction Proposal:

6 Big Problems Congressional Republicans Need to Solve

The attack on USAID portends a war on the welfare state

Alarming report shows US drowning in red ink - as Democrats block spending cuts

Do you think this will help? Can we agree that Congress, collectively, has ushered in this economic damaging phenomenon, i.e., out-of-control deficit spending which expands the Federal debt?

The Washington Times Report

The Wall Street Journal's Opinion

Economic Prosperity is a blog for the consideration of perspectives. Discussion of any of the drivers of economic prosperity is appropriate. Prosperity can be complex and fragile. Historically, free and open markets have shown to be the best growth environment. The graphic below highlights major factors that foster economic prosperity. Using these factors as a checklist in evaluating economies around the world, the underlying reasons for economic disparity become clear.

• Prosperity is far more than wealth; it is when all people have the opportunity and freedom to thrive. Prosperity is underpinned by an inclusive society, with a strong social contract that protects the fundamental liberties and security of every individual. It is driven by an open economy that harnesses ideas and talent to create sustainable pathways out of poverty. And it is built by empowered people, who contribute and play their part in creating a society that promotes wellbeing.

The domains, pillars and elements of prosperity

The definition of prosperity

What is Prosperity? An overview of what makes a prosperous nation and a prosperous life.

Defining prosperity: A definition of prosperity, describing its core components and structure.

True prosperity is when all people have the opportunity to thrive by fulfilling their unique potential and playing their part in strengthening their communities and nations.

Prosperity is underpinned by an inclusive society, with a strong social contract that protects the fundamental liberties and security of every individual.

In a prosperous society:

• People live in peace, free from the threat of violence, oppression, and crime.

• Everyone’s inherent dignity is respected, and freedom of speech, worship, and assembly are protected.

• Governing institutions act with integrity, are accountable to citizens, and are subject to the rule of law.

• Stable families and supportive communities instil the values that shape the culture and build the bonds of trust needed for society to flourish.

Prosperity is driven by an open economy that harnesses ideas and talent to create sustainable pathways out of poverty.

In a prosperous society:

• Property rights are protected, so investment can flow.

• Business regulation enables entrepreneurship, competition, and innovation.

• Open markets and high-quality infrastructure facilitate trade and commerce.

• Fiscal and monetary policy are used responsibly to foster employment, productivity, and sustained economic growth.

Prosperity is built by empowered people, who create a society that promotes wellbeing.

In a prosperous society:

• Everybody is able to build a life free from poverty.

• People take care of their physical and mental health and have access to effective healthcare.

• Learning is valued and everyone receives a high-quality education, so they can reach their potential.

• The natural environment is stewarded wisely, as a legacy for present and future generations.

Ultimately, prosperity is not just about what we have; it is also about who we become.

A potential low-cost power solution that will most likely NOT blossom within the “senior citizens’” lifespan … but interesting. (… no personal financial involvement.)

“ … the first-ever critical test of a thorium molten salt reactor on European soil, specifically in Switzerland.”

A snippet from an embedded link in the email below:

One month ago, I was at the Texas Nuclear Summit, a nuclear conference about building more nuclear power plants in Texas. I have never experienced anything like that in my entire career in the nuclear industry. Such optimism has not been found for half a century. The slogan of the conference was time-to-build! Many people have talked about putting the shovel in the dirt from the dais. The Texas forecast is to build 65 GW of new electricity capacity in the next 6 - 8 years. Which is more than all of Europe plans to build in the same time span. Texas has a population of 30 million and a double-digit growth. Europe has 450 million and negative growth.

The reactor: “The reactor type invented by Copenhagen Atomics is a thorium molten salt breeder reactor, which fits inside a custom built 40-foot shipping container and can be mass manufactured on assembly lines with an expected output of minimum 1 reactor per day (per assembly line).”

Business model: “Copenhagen Atomics will finance, build, own and operate the reactors on the customer site. The resulting energy prices are expected to be ¼ of the typical price from classic nuclear reactors.”

About Copenhagen Atomics

CA UPDATE January 2025

Jam's Opinion

It’s the beginning of 2025; the first quarter of this century has almost passed us by. I take a look in the crystal ball and digest what is about to come and also look back on a long walk for nuclear energy across a vast desert. Read more...

What happened in 2024?

PSI collaboration

Earlier this year, Copenhagen Atomics signed the most significant collaboration agreement in our 10-year history. We partnered with the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) to conduct the first-ever critical test of a thorium molten salt reactor on European soil, specifically in Switzerland.

After a decade of development, Copenhagen Atomics has advanced the technology to the point where it is ready for real-world testing. This test validates the extensive simulations conducted on the reactor, bringing us closer to a fully operational commercial reactor.

Tonne-Scale Salt Production

Throughout 2024, Copenhagen Atomics’ salt team has optimized and scaled up production.

We now produce exceptionally high-quality salt in batches of several tonnes, enabling us to meet both testing requirements and customer demands.

Our batches feature impurity levels below 59 ppm for Fe, Cr, and Ni, and oxide levels below 50 ppm.

Notably, this year saw the delivery of our largest salt order to date delivered to Abilene Christian University in Texas.

Record Loop Operations

In 2024, Copenhagen Atomics operated more loops simultaneously than ever before. We have run more loops than anyone else, typically more than 10 loops operating for half or full year duration without maintenance.

Reliability is critical to our mission. These loops play a vital role in validating every component used in our reactors, ensuring the robustness and performance required for thorium molten salt reactor development.

DeepGEO Partnership

Copenhagen Atomics and DeepGEO have joined forces to tackle waste challenges in nuclear technologies. Our partnership focuses on recycling spent nuclear fuel, transforming it from a liability into a valuable resource.

Copenhagen Atomics’ thorium reactors are designed to efficiently burn spent fuel, significantly reducing long-lived waste. DeepGEO will provide waste management and disposal solutions, ensuring sustainable practices. This agreement underscores our commitment to innovative approaches in nuclear waste handling and invites collaboration with other developers.

Looking ahead to 2025!

While 2024 has been a milestone year, we are equally excited about the future.

In 2025, we anticipate several major developments, including the closure of a major funding round.

Happy New Year from the CA team!

The Confluence of Threat Vectors: Iran, Russia, & China

By Mike Sullivan / March 27, 2022

In my lifetime as a “boomer,” I have not seen the confluence of such incendiary threat vectors to our democracy and freedom as we have on the world stage today.

• At this juncture, our immediate actions going forward will make the difference between a good life or an ugly life for our children and grandchildren.

• Unfortunately, we live in a world with Middle Eastern terrorists and “wacko dictators” like Putin and Xi Jinping who have zero regard for humanity and are “not our friends.”

• Just as we have strife within the US between the “haves & have nots,” the same dynamic operates internationally. (More below on how to make things better.)

Attacks against freedom & democracy as evidenced in Ukraine, coupled with increasing threats by China to Taiwan, (more below), and Iran’s threat of “soon” obtaining a nuclear weapon, are the immediate existential threats.

Minimizing/managing the threats below will allow the freedom and resources to more effectively address the calls for managing climate change. It reminds me of the old saying, “It is difficult to remember the objective is to drain the swamp when you are up to your ass in alligators.”

WHAT AM I ASKING OF YOU? All should –

• Consider the issues below and how they may affect your future.

• Communicate your concerns with your elected officials, if you see the issues threatening your family.

• Continually monitor national and world events.

• Share these and other concerns with friends.

The IRAN NUKE DEAL – Risk: As Putin is doing, do we want to be “blackmailed” by a terrorist state?

• The race to finalize a deal is being overshadowed by the Ukraine war. Moreover, Russia formally represents US interests (HA!) at the negotiating table! Today, Russia is threatening NUCLEAR action to keep others out of Ukraine. What do you think IRAN will do once it obtains its NUCLEAR weapons?!?

• Here is a recent article from THE HILL discussing doubts by both parties on moving forward with the renegotiation. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/598835-lawmakers-skeptical-of-biden-effort-to-resurrect-iran-nuclear-deal

• The US Congress has no visibility to ongoing negotiations, thus, no understanding to what the administration may be committing the US.  Recent reports are that the agreement would allow Iran to sell its excess enriched uranium to Russia – the country that is threatening use of nuclear weapons! Another aspect is that the US may remove Iran’s Revolutionary Guard from the Terror Blacklist. This would allow more funding for the terrorist force!

• Even as new negotiations are underway, Iran continues aggressive hostile actions against democratic entities. One of the most ridiculous and harmful aspects of the original agreement is the fact that it did not couple any conditions to curtail the continued Iranian terrorist activity. Today, Iran is the most prominent of state sponsored terrorism.

THE VALUE OF TAIWAN – Risk: Do we want China to disrupt our tech supply chain, and stunt our tech development?

• Off-shore production strategies have made Taiwan the biggest manufacturer of semiconductors. The US leads in the design of semiconductors, but the factories reside elsewhere. The initiatives to build factories in the US are good. However, the factories will take 3 to 4 years to come online.

• In 2020, Taiwan manufacturers accounted for more than 60% of total global [semiconductor manufacturing] revenue last year. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-charts-show-how-much-the-world-depends-on-taiwan-for- semiconductors.html

• Taiwan is very attractive to China for its economic value. Can you see Xi Jinping rationing semiconductors to democratic nations?

ENERGY – Risk: Do we want to be dependent on bad actors for our energy, and thus our economic prosperity?

• Are you concerned about energy? I know my natural gas heating rates increased 48 percent. Sure, I can afford to pay a little more. However, there are many who are/will be hurt.

• A global leader needs energy independence. What does that mean? It means the US should aggressively pursue domestic production of ALL FORMS of energy. There is ABSOLUTELY no reason to be begging Venezuela, Iran, or the Saudis to pump more oil for the US.

HOW TO MAKE THINGS BETTER – Become a world leader in peace by developing prosperity for all!

• Foster new entrants to the Abraham Peace Accords. Were I asked, “Who are some of the fiercest enemies on the globe?” I would have to say Israel and their local Middle Eastern foes. Listen to Netanyahu’s testimony (above link) on the Accords – we now have collaboration among foes!

• Create and support strong economic engines operating within free markets. Strong economies raise all boats!

• Promote and implement opportunities for building prosperity among disadvantaged constituencies, both US and internationally. It is good business! The way to a better future is by “increasing the size of the pie,” not reallocating wealth.

• Promote and support a “warp speed” effort to regain energy independence.

• Promote and support a strong military – peace through strength. It can never be said that the US is, or has been, an imperialist nation. To lead, the US must be strong.

Please note that I am not addressing North Korea, Covid, nor the current inflation that many may consider within the threat list. I am happy for anyone to suggest an alternative happy outcome for the US under these circumstances. If offered, please provide the reasoning.

2 thoughts on “The Confluence of Threat Vectors: Iran, Russia, & China”

MIKE SULLIVAN, MARCH 28, 2022 AT 4:27 PM

IRAN NUKE DEAL: Treaty or no treaty? Do we think an agreement for the production of enriched uranium by the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism would warrant a treaty? In crafting important “state” agreements with world nations, the US typically details the pact in a treaty. President Obama’s administration did not pursue a treaty with the original agreement, and now President Biden’s administration is also bypassing treaty options.

What is the issue? A treaty requires approval by our US Senate representatives. The old and current agreement under negotiation, (as Russia negotiates on behalf of the US, because Iran will not have the US at the negotiating table), were not/and are not on a “treaty track.”

What does that mean to John Q. Public? This means that a handful of people within the current administration are making decisions on one of the most impactful agreements affecting the US population, RATHER THAN having yours and my Senators evaluate the risks and rewards. The current glide path could be cataclysmic. BTW, many people criticize former President Trump for exiting the old agreement. Right or wrong, had it been a treaty, the exit would not have been so simple.

As the US Department of State says, “Treaties and other international agreements are written agreements between sovereign states (or between states and international organizations) governed by international law. The United States enters into more than 200 treaties and other international agreements each year.” (https://www.state.gov/policy-issues/treaties-and-international-agreements/)

MIKE SULLIVAN, MAY 1, 2022 AT 6:32 AM

The WSJ article The Long Arc of Historical Progress discusses historian Anne Applebaum’s Atlantic article. One of her quotes: “There is no arc of history, nothing inevitable about either democracy or dictatorship. What happens tomorrow depends on what all of us do today.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-arc-of-historical-progress-11651244262?st=mwxhxs3za1g5bar&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink